Tri-County economy envy of many in state

Ed Scharlau is tired of being inundated with bad economic news. So, for the fifth year in a row, Scharlau, vice-chairman of First Busey Corp., brought positive economic news about the Tri-County Area to the Country Club of Peoria in his economic seminar.

He wasted no time getting to the good news.

“After reviewing the figures I think the Peoria area has the strongest economy downstate,” Scharlau said. “After doing research in preparation for this seminar I feel better knowing that there are some positive things happening.”

National picture
Scharlau said with so much negative economic news on the national front it is easy to fall into a pessimistic mood.

“We have been asking the same questions for the past two years. Will the economy continue slow growth? Will the economy stall? Will the economy have a double dip?” Scharlau said.

“I think, overall, we will see growth nationally for the next couple of years, but it will be slow.”

Scharlau said some positive growth is already being seen. In the first quarter gross domestic product grew only .4 percent. In the second quarter, the growth was 1.3 percent.

“That reinforces that the economy is struggling to move forward,” Scharlau said.

But, challenges, he said, still lie ahead. One of the biggest, he said, is consumer confidence.

“Consumer confidence nationally was at 45.4 percent in August, but fell to 45.2 percent in September.
That is the lowest level since April 2009.

“Hopefully we are seeing the bottom of consumer confidence,” Scharlau said.
“Consumer confidence is very important to the economy.”

Illinois’ outlook
Looking at Illinois’ economy Scharlau said he found good news.

The University of Illinois Flash Index, which assesses Illinois’ economy, found the economy in September at its most robust in three years.

“That looks at the whole state and indicates Illinois is doing better than a lot of people think,” Scharlau said.

Local picture
Scharlau said the most positive outlook he found was in the Tri-County Area.

Retail sales in the Tri-County Area, he said, which were down 6 percent in 2009, rebounded to 4.5 percent growth in 2010 and is estimated to grow another 3 percent in 2011 to a total of more than $4.8 billion.

Of that total, Peoria County accounts for 55 percent of retail sales. Tazewell County comes in second with 39 percent, and Woodford County accounts for 6 percent.

“The Tri-County Area is growing in retail sales,” Scharlau said.

“Most counties south of I-74 are down. These figures indicate the local economy has started to rebound.”

Scharlau said another positive indicator of the Tri-County Area economy is the growing number of businesses paying sales taxes to the state.  The number in 2010 grew 249 to 9,005.

“All three counties were up,” Scharlau said.

He also found good news in the local real estate picture. Scharlau said he found that while fewer homes were sold in 2010, more condominiums were sold.

But, he said, one has to take into consideration that fewer homes were listed for sale in 2010.

“It’s down, overall, but houses are moving. You should feel good about that,” he said.

Scharlau also said the fact that more expensive home sales (those listed for $300,000 or more) are up is a positive sign.

Ag looks good
Scharlau said agriculture looks good statewide and locally.

“Last year China started importing corn. They also buy about one quarter of all U.S. soybeans,” Scharlau said. “A lot of the soybeans grown here will be headed to China.”

Agriculture receipts for the Tri-County Area, which is estimated to be $506 million for 2010, is estimated to be $666 million in 2011.

“That is $160 million more. It’s got to have a positive impact on the local economy,” Scharlau said.

Employment, population
Employment figures released Sept. 22 also paint a positive local picture,” Scharlau said.

The figures show in August there were 181,174 people employed in the Tri-County Area. That is up 3,691 from August of 2010.

“Look at the 11 east central Illinois counties, including McLean and Champaign counties, and you will find all 11 counties had fewer people employed in August of 2011 compared to last year,” Scharlau said.

Population in the Tri-County Area is also on the rise. Illinois’ population is up 3.3 percent over a decade ago. Peoria County grew 1.7 percent. Tazewell County grew 5.4 percent. Woodford County grew 9 percent.

“Many downstate counties showed a decrease. Macon County fell 3.4 percent,” Scharlau said.

“Looking at the Tri-County Area the total increase in population over the last 10 years is 13,164 for a total population of 360,552.”

Scharlau concluded that after reviewing several local economic factors, “The Peoria Area certainly has one of the strongest economies in downstate Illinois.

“You can take pride in knowing that most other communities in the country would be envious of your local economy.”