Public Policy Polling says GOP is headed for wins in Illinois.
Public Policy Polling in says GOP is headed for wins in Illinois.
Republicans continue to lead the races for both Governor and Senator in
Illinois, albeit by close margins. Mark Kirk is ahead of Alexi Giannoulias 46-42 for the
state's open Senate seat and Bill Brady is ahead of Pat Quinn 45-40 for Governor.
There are three main reasons Republicans are headed for big gains across the country this
year and the Illinois races exemplify all three of them:
-Independents are leaning strongly toward the GOP. Kirk leads Giannoulias 46-31 with
them and Brady has a 45-27 advantage over Quinn with them.
-Republican voters are much more unified around their candidates this year than
Democrats are. 87% of GOP identifiers are planning to vote for Kirk while only 78% of
Democrats are planning to vote for Giannoulias. In the Governor's race 86% of
Republicans support Brady while Quinn's only getting 75% support from his party.
-Republican voters are much more likely to head to the polls this year than Democrats.
In 2008 Barack Obama won Illinois by 25 points. Those who say they're likely to vote
this year only supported him by 14 points. That's a strong indication that many of the
voters who were a part of the Obama 'wave' are staying at home this year.
No matter who wins either of these races Illinois voters will be left with a Governor and
Senator that they don't like. Giannoulias' favorability is 35/49, Kirk's isn't much better at
39/45. Quinn's approval is 32/54 and that's a good thing for Brady because voters don't
like him either, giving him a favorability of 39/45.
“The Illinois races are pretty emblematic of the country as a whole this year,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters don’t like any of their choices but
they like the Democratic ones even less than the Republican ones and because of that
look like they’ll give the GOP a chance to do better in these offices.”
PPP surveyed 814 likely Illinois voters on October 30th and 31st. The margin of error for
the survey is +/- 3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting,
may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.